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What to EXPECT IN BUDGET 2024/2025 - Is this a Pre-Election Budget?

The upcoming federal budget, set to be unveiled today, appears poised to target millennial and Gen-Z voters with a suite of new spending and loan initiatives focused on improving housing affordability and addressing the current housing shortage.

Election Issues - What is the Liberal’s Strategy?
As these demographics played a crucial role in the past electoral successes of the minority Liberal government, the budget is strategically crafted to regain their support. This push includes a significant financial commitment, with more than $38 billion in new initiatives announced in the weeks leading up to the budget, including $17 billion through loan programs. These measures fall under broader themes of housing, affordability, and economic growth, signalling the government's intent to invest heavily in areas that directly impact the younger voter base.

Inflation Tension, The Balancing Force to A Spend Thrift 2024/2025 Election Budget
However, these ambitious spending plans come with fiscal challenges, notably the need to manage inflation and adhere to stringent fiscal targets without exacerbating the deficit. Economists are hinting at potential tax hikes as a necessary measure to balance the budget, with possible increases targeting industries and wealthier segments of the population rather than the middle class. This approach aligns with the government's previous stance of not raising taxes on the middle class but shifting the fiscal burden to wealthier Canadians and certain sectors. The budget also needs to navigate the delicate balance of stimulating economic growth while avoiding further inflationary pressures, which could complicate efforts by the Bank of Canada to manage the national economy effectively. This tension is further compounded by recent increases in provincial spending, which already pose challenges to national inflation targets.

Tension and Calculations That Will Set the Context on Whether or Not an Election is Called!
It’s my opinion, that senior election strategist for the Liberal Party may have made the following conclusions and advised the party to do the following:
  • Re-establish their connection with their voter base with a budget that speaks to their values and priorities,
  • Since this sounds to be a heavy spending budget, strategist are acknowledging that in their scenario analysis, this is most likely an Election Budget, which means the following:
    • The Liberals don’t know how long the coalition will hold and/or if it makes it to 2025/2026 Budget,
    • Are strategist envisioning imminently being triggered e.g. a Spring/Summer/Fall 2024 Election?
  • Jagmeet holds the key and his calculations will be based on various factors surrounding the election - see the following article where I discussed this…. https://theccsgroup.ca/insight/will-there-be-an-election-in-2024-ndp-hold-all-the-cards-on-that-decision/
  • There are some that hold that Jagmeet is really worried about his pension (2.3 million dollars is a lot of money to walk away from, and he doesn’t qualify for this pension, unless he holds his seat until February 2025).
What Does this Mean for Your Organization if this is the Election Budget? How Should your Organization Respond?
During government election periods, when budgets and policies are often under scrutiny, organizations can seize several strategic opportunities to advance their interests, influence policy, and enhance their visibility. Here are some ways organizations can take advantage of this time:

Advocacy and Lobbying With Government and the Opposition:
  • Elections are pivotal times for policy change and commitment. Government’s are sensitive since they are being reviewed for how well they are doing their job.
  • Organizations should ramp up their advocacy efforts to access funding envelopes and begin strategizing on messaging to influence party platforms and the stances of individual candidates.
  • This is also an optimal time to establish relationships with potential opposition members who might be sympathetic to their cause.

Public Relations and Visibility:
  • During elections, the public, media, and politicians are more attuned to debates and discussions about future directions for national policy. Organizations can capitalize on this increased attention by boosting their public relations efforts. Hosting public forums, writing op-eds, and engaging with the media can help organizations position themselves as thought leaders in their field.
  • Strategic Investments and Funding Opportunities: Election times often come with shifts in public spending and investment priorities. As we saw with the huge investment into Defence Spending announced last week. In short, governments will be spending!
  • Organizations should engage to try and secure new government programs, grants, or shifts in regulatory landscapes that align with their strategic goals. Being proactive in understanding potential budget allocations can position an organization to be first in line for new opportunities.

Community Engagement and Voter Education:

Step up your Public Relations Campaign!!

By engaging directly with the community and educating voters about issues that impact their sector, organizations can raise awareness and potentially influence voter decisions. This engagement not only helps in shaping the election discourse but also builds long-term goodwill and trust within the community.

By leveraging these strategies, organizations can effectively navigate the election period, making the most of the opportunities that arise to shape policy outcomes and enhance their strategic interests.

Navigating Election and 2024/2025 Budget with the TheCCSGroup

If your organization is looking to enhance its government relations strategy, explore new funding opportunities, or have a more significant impact on policy, TheCCSGroup can assist your organization as we have with all of our other clients! 

Our team of experts brings deep experience in navigating the intricacies of government and policy environments. We're committed to helping you develop effective strategies that align with your goals and drive meaningful engagement. Reach out to us at The CCS Group to explore how we can support your efforts in shaping and influencing policy effectively.

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