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Federal Pre-Election Polling - If The Election Was Called Today!

July 30, 2015

Globe and Mail Source

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How Should You Read & Understand These Early Polls?
These are early days in the election.  It’s obvious that much can change between now and when the Writ drops.  Once the election is called, people will start paying more attention to candidates, party policy documents and key messages which will help them start forming some of their decisions for this election.   Rumours have it that the Conservatives will call the election early – some saying even as early as this weekend.  All parties have been campaigning for months now and the election machines are in full tilt across the country.

The most obvious fact surrounding the polling is how far back in the ‘race’ the Liberals are starting out in this campaign.  This is a large deficit; and maybe a very difficult one to come back from. 

Note: Seat Projections when it comes to polling, in my opinion, is the most important indicator to monitor during elections. You can have 4-5% difference in popular vote between parties; and still have one party command a wide lead in the actual number of seats that they win when the election results are tabulated.

Government Relations Engagement
Once the election is called,  it becomes more difficult to get new business or new ideas initiated with the government.  Bureaucrats typically become unresponsive to political pressure; and often, approvals and any major decisions are delayed until the election is over and a new government is put in place.  The Minister’s Office are staffed with bare minimum political staff and for the most part, seeking a meeting will not be accommodated and won’t make much sense for your organization.

Ron Gersh, Principal