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Federal Election Update - Getting a 'SnapShot of Where the Election Really Stands'
September 17, 2019
Determining Election Results
If you’re looking for insights and a ‘snapshot’ on where the election currently stands, the best way of achieving this is to ignore what newspapers typically focus on (which is the popular vote) and find the analytics surrounding seat projections.
Research firms (in this case CBC poll analyst Eric Grenier) review each riding separately, and analyze which party is the most likely to ‘win’ that seat. The aggregate view of the total amount of ridings a party can attain, along with where they are holding now, will tell you the most realistic picture of the election results (all things being equal).
Based on the seat projections below, it is clear that the popular vote which is ‘pinning’ the Federal Conservatives at a dead heat with the Liberal Party, is frankly inaccurate. The reality is at this point, if the election is held today, the Liberals are heading for a clear majority. The Conservatives best chance now, if everything falls into place is just to slip into majority territory. Having said that, we are early days in the election process, and much can change now and when the final voting day arrives.
If you’re looking for insights and a ‘snapshot’ on where the election currently stands, the best way of achieving this is to ignore what newspapers typically focus on (which is the popular vote) and find the analytics surrounding seat projections.
Research firms (in this case CBC poll analyst Eric Grenier) review each riding separately, and analyze which party is the most likely to ‘win’ that seat. The aggregate view of the total amount of ridings a party can attain, along with where they are holding now, will tell you the most realistic picture of the election results (all things being equal).
Based on the seat projections below, it is clear that the popular vote which is ‘pinning’ the Federal Conservatives at a dead heat with the Liberal Party, is frankly inaccurate. The reality is at this point, if the election is held today, the Liberals are heading for a clear majority. The Conservatives best chance now, if everything falls into place is just to slip into majority territory. Having said that, we are early days in the election process, and much can change now and when the final voting day arrives.