Election Polling: Nearing the Mid-Point of the Election Race

Author: Ron Gersh (Data - Éric Grenier, CBC)

As we near the half-way mark of this election, it looks like the election is playing out as most people expected - given that the Liberals and NDP weren't polling strong before the Election.  Data from polling is showing that currently Ontario Conservatives are on the 'winning' side of this election with a fairly comfortable majority.  

Interesting to note, is that Democrats and Liberals are projecting in the same range.  They also both sit on similar ideological platforms, and they are essentially splitting the base of people seeking a government firmly committed to the 'left-wing' mandate and agenda. 

 

Unless something drastically changes, and/or the Conservatives make a drastic misstep, the numbers and data is stating (more like yelling) the following results:

As stated above, without having a differentiated platform between the Liberals and NDP, the following seat projections graphs, will not vary all that much between now and the election (this is my opinion).  Those that have chosen to vote Conservatives are all-in, since they aren’t left (at least in this election) with a serious ‘viable’ alternative to the Conservatives.

The Liberals and NDP will fight for those seeking a social and economic equality vote, and loyalty and earned votes will be contingent on the following factors:

1. At the local level, candidates tangible characteristics: like-ability, effort, historical name recognition;  
2. On the provincial level, obviously debate performance and the gravitas of each leader to sway the 'left-wing' base that they can deliver on their proposed agenda.

Based on the last few debates, my guess (if I were putting my own money down) is that Andrea has the upper hand here, and expect the NDP to continue climbing in seats and overall-popularity from here till Election Day June 2, 2022 (all things remaining equal).

Interesting note in my research:  “You know things aren’t going ‘swimmingly’ for you as a new party-leader during the election-race, when you get a headline in the Toronto Star (that has a historical proclivity of supporting your party), that states the following:

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