Author: Ron Gersh

Election Results History

Election Data (2015-2024)

The provided election results for Toronto-St. Paul's show a significant shift in voter preferences over the years:

• 2015: The Liberal candidate won with 55% of the vote, while the Conservative candidate received 27%.
• 2019: The Liberal candidate maintained a strong lead with 54%, compared to the Conservative's 22%.
• 2021: The Liberal candidate's share dropped to 49%, with the Conservative candidate increasing to 25%.
• 2024: In a major upset, the Conservative candidate received 42%, narrowly defeating the Liberal candidate, who garnered 41%.

These results indicate a decreasing trend in Liberal support and a corresponding increase in Conservative support over the last three election cycles, culminating in a significant shift in the 2024 by-election.

Election Map

The map shows the electoral landscape of Toronto, with Toronto-St. Paul's standing out as a Conservative victory amidst a predominantly Liberal region. This visual highlights the Conservative breakthrough in what has been a traditionally Liberal stronghold.

By-Election Analysis

The Shocking Outcome

The 2024 by-election in Toronto-St. Paul's resulted in a surprising victory for the Conservative candidate Don Stewart, who won with 42.1% of the votes against the Liberal candidate Leslie Church's 40.5% . This marks a historic shift in a riding held by the Liberals for over 30 years.

Factors Influencing the Result:

• Campaign Strategies: Both parties exerted significant effort in the by-election. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre campaigned intensively, highlighting issues such as taxation, housing, budget management, and crime reduction.
• Liberal Campaign: Senior Liberal figures, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and key cabinet members, campaigned for Leslie Church, emphasizing government achievements and addressing local concerns. Despite these efforts, the party's message failed to resonate sufficiently with voters.
• Voter Sentiment: The results reflect a broader dissatisfaction with the Liberal government, as indicated by various polls. The electorate's growing concerns over high taxes, economic issues, and leadership effectiveness played a critical role in the outcome.

Implications for Future Elections

The by-election results serve as a stark warning to the Liberal Party, indicating potential vulnerabilities in upcoming general elections. The shift suggests that even urban cores, traditionally Liberal strongholds, are now contestable. The Conservative victory in Toronto-St. Paul's could foreshadow similar outcomes in other key ridings across the country.

Leadership and Strategy

The Liberal Party faces a critical decision regarding leadership, with increasing calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down in favour of new leadership. However, polls suggest that potential replacements may not significantly improve the party's electoral prospects.

In conclusion, the Toronto-St. Paul's by-election is a pivotal moment, reflecting changing political dynamics and voter sentiments that could shape the future of Canadian federal politics. The Liberals must reassess their strategies and address voter concerns to regain lost ground, while the Conservatives will likely build on this momentum to target other Liberal-held urban ridings.

TheCCSGroup believes this will have huge implications on whether or not The Ontario Conservatives will call an Early Election?