If we are Rumor Mongering, Here's my Trudeau Narrative Subsequent to the Freeland Resignation

Author: Ron Gersh

Despite mounting pressure and unfavorable poll numbers, Justin Trudeau will remain defiant in his position as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party. Here’s why:

Trudeau’s Resilience
Trudeau has shown a history of weathering political storms and maintaining his leadership position. Even in the face of previous calls for his resignation, he has chosen to “take time to think about his future” but ultimately decided to stay on. This pattern suggests he may continue to resist pressure to step down.

Party Division
While some Liberal MPs are vocal about their desire for change, the party remains divided. Estimates suggest that between 40 and 50 of the 153 sitting Liberal MPs want Trudeau to resign immediately, with about 50 MPs being professed Trudeau loyalists. This split within the party could allow Trudeau to maintain his position, arguing for party unity in the face of external challenges.

Potential Timeline if He Resigns:

If Trudeau does eventually yield to pressure, a Liberal leadership race could potentially unfold as follows:

1. Early 2025: Trudeau announces his intention to step down 

2. Spring 2025: Liberal Party holds a leadership convention

3. Summer 2025: New leader takes over and prepares for the election

Election Timing
Given the current political climate, the Liberals may opt to wait until the latest possible date for the federal election, which is October 20, 2025. This strategy would:

• Allow time for a new leader to establish themselves
• Provide an opportunity to rebuild public support
• Maximize the time for potential shifts in public opinion

However, if Trudeau remains in power, he might choose to call an earlier election if he sees a strategic advantage or if pressured by the breakdown of agreements with other parties.

Conclusion

While 80% of Canadians may desire a change in leadership, Trudeau’s history of resilience and the divided nature of his party suggest he may attempt to maintain his position until the last possible moment. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether he can regain public support or if the pressure for change becomes insurmountable.

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