Will there be an Election in 2024? NDP hold all the cards on that decision!

Author: Ron Gersh

What we know is that the NDP alliance is currently holding the Federal Liberals in government.  The minority remains intact as long as the leader of the NDP, Jagmeet Singh, remains compliant with the existing alliance. 

History has shown us that minority governments typically last for no longer than two years.  Our last election was September 20, 2021 and we’ve just slightly crossed that two year mark.

On October 13th, 2023, the largest gathering of NDP members, in over three years, was held.  The braintrust of the NDP, Anne McGrath, National Director for the NDP provided a direct message when asked “are you in election mode?”. Her response was simple:

“We’re definitely in election mode, we’re nominating candidates, we’re raising money, we’re knocking on doors, we’re getting ready!”

Singh remains the Overwhelming Popular Leader of the NDP

Singh won the support of 81 per cent of delegates who voted not to hold a leadership convention.  That's down slightly from his previous votes.

• In 2018, 90.7 per cent of delegates voted against triggering a leadership race.
• In 2021, 87 per cent of party delegates voted against a leadership convention.

So the next question to ask is what calculations have the NDP made that they are gearing themselves up for a Spring/Summer or Fall of 2024 election?

Polling - specifically seat projects todays state the following:

Who are the NDP targeting with their Campaign: the Liberals or Conservatives?

Leadership in the NDP party absolutely believe that the Liberals will sink even lower in the next election than their existing seat projection.  They see the seeds of change happening, people want everything but the existing government.

With that thinking in mind, they have firmly targeted the Conservatives in their next election - not the Liberals.  They are trying the following messaging:

Messaging for NDP is Ready!  Campaign Literature is Complete!

Broadbent drew comparisons between the Great Depression and the COVID-19 pandemic saying both cataclysms offered an opportunity to rebuild social safety systems with government.

“While working within a market-based economy, we must avoid becoming a market-shaped society.  It's the values of social democracy that must serve as our guide.”

1. Other high priority proposals seek to set up high-speed internet in rural and Indigenous communities.

2. Implement all 231 recommendations to emerge from the National Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls in 2019.

3. Greater equality and a path to the clean jobs future that we need.

4. Tackle the climate emergency and create good jobs.

5. Strengthening public health care and expanding it to make sure everyone is covered for the care they need to get and stay healthier longer.

6. Build the infrastructure they need to thrive, from roads and bridges to community centres, long-term care, child care centres and everything in between.

List of:   Full election promises:

Arming the Troops:

The NDP has nominated about 50 candidates so far and "identified" more than 130 others, some 80 of whom are now being vetted, the party said.

New Democrats have raised $2.6 million this year, a far cry from the $6.8 million raised by the Liberals or the $16.2 million collected by the Conservatives.

Increased fundraising revenue means more campaign workers on the ground, better research and more advertising between elections.

Conclusion:

When is the timing right to trigger an election?

This has a simple and short answer:

If Jagmeet feels like he can significantly exceed the 25 seats they currently hold, then he’ll be opportunistic and trigger the election:

The Case for Going in Early Spring:

Public polling on the Liberals is the lowest it has ever been.  NDP has built their platform campaign to say they can do a better job than the Liberals, given the opportunity.

Manitoba and British Columbia are currently run by NDP governments and there may be more seats to be had in those provinces.

Between now and 2024 Liberals could lose more ground and with the  NDP’s focused campaign against Conservatives, they think there could be gains for their party; especially when they begin the messaging that disassociates their party from the Liberal sinking ship.

Premier Wab Kinew just got elected in Manitoba in early October running under the NDP banner. Strategists are seeing an orange swing in Canada and may want to capitalize on this changing sentiment against Liberals.

The Case for Waiting Longer or to 2025:

Numbers don’t lie. If the election was held today, NDP would lose five seats according to the seat projections.

Can the NDP change the growing resentment from Canadian voters that the NDP has been propping up the Liberal Party, specifically Justin Trudeau?

Will Canadians take Jagmeet seriously? 

More numbers for you to consider:

2011 - 103 seats Mulcair
2015 - 44 seats  Mulcair
2019 - 24 seats Singh
2021 - 24 seats Singh
2023 - 20 seats Singh

Indeed, politics is often described as unforgiving. The decisions a party leader makes not only impact their personal political career but also the fortunes of the entire party.

Historical Performance: Maintaining or growing the NDP's seat count will be crucial. The reality, though, is that the trend since 2011 has shown a decline and achieving a count lower than the 24 seats in the last election would likely be viewed as a failure.

Leadership Review: The 80% approval rating he enjoys now is commendable but in politics, numbers and party loyalty are very volatile. A significant underperformance in the next election could indeed swing sentiment and lead to demands for a leadership review or even a quick resignation from the leader himself.

Strategic Alliance: The alliance with the Liberals is a double-edged sword. While it offers stability and influence in the short term, it can be seen as compromising the party's principles or propping up an unpopular government.

Singh will have to create an iron-clad rationale for breaking away from this alliance that will separate the public alliance image that the NDP and Liberals currently hold.

Public Perception: Voters need to see the NDP as not just an alternative, but as a viable governing party. Singh will need to emphasize policy differences, showcase the party's vision for Canada and present a compelling case for how the NDP would govern differently. 

Currently, the polling has grouped him in with Trudeau and not many people see clear distinctions between their platforms.

Regional Dynamics: Localized successes, like in Manitoba, are not always amplified to a national scale.  There is a deeply held axiom amongst Canadians that sees the definition of good governance is achieved when you don’t have the same party governing provincially and federally.

In conclusion, Singh and the NDP leadership will need a multifaceted strategy that combines solid policy proposals, effective messaging, strong regional campaigns and a keen eye on the shifting political landscape. The next election will be pivotal for both Singh's leadership and the NDP's future in Canadian politics.